January 2026 presented a curious contradiction in the logistics sector: a robust increase in truckload rates juxtaposed with a noticeable downturn in shipment volumes. This phenomenon, highlighted by data from Cass Information Systems, points to a market influenced by several factors, including inclement weather and shifting inventory dynamics. Experts are now scrutinizing whether this trend signifies a broader market recovery or merely a short-term anomaly.
Details of the Logistics Market Movement
Data released by Cass Information Systems for January 2026 revealed that the multimodal shipments index experienced a significant decline of 7.1% year-over-year, and a more pronounced 14.7% drop over a two-year period, reaching levels not witnessed since the 2009 Global Financial Crisis. Furthermore, shipments decreased by 2% from December on a seasonally adjusted basis. This contraction was primarily driven by severe winter weather conditions across various regions and retailers’ decisions to maintain leaner inventories at the start of the year.
Conversely, the Cass expenditures index, which encompasses total freight spending including fuel, saw a modest increase of 0.6% year-over-year and a 0.4% rise from December when seasonally adjusted. Excluding the seasonal adjustment, a 3.6% sequential decrease was noted. The two-year stacked decline in expenditures was the smallest since July 2023, indicating a potential stabilization. When considering the interplay between declining volumes and rising expenditures, an inferred rate increase of approximately 8% year-over-year in January is suggested.
Most notably, the Truckload (TL) linehaul index, which isolates rates by excluding fuel and other surcharges, climbed 1.7% from December and a solid 3.2% year-over-year. This marks the fifth consecutive month of sequential growth and the thirteenth consecutive month of year-over-year increases, following a 24-month period of decline. The two-year stacked reading also shows a 4% increase. The report identifies the challenging weather as a key factor in boosting these rates, noting that improved weather could temper this trend, though spot rates are still expected to accelerate in February.
The TL linehaul index, predominantly comprised of contract rates, also suggests a shifting landscape, with anecdotal evidence pointing to more shippers engaging in one-year bids, signaling a movement in the market cycle beyond just weather-induced effects. Fleet operators are reportedly optimistic about an impending recovery, with even modest 2% contract rate increases being viewed as a welcome relief after a prolonged period of stagnation or decline. Despite potential near-term reversions due to better weather, tighter capacity is anticipated to drive moderate truckload rate increases throughout 2026.
Industry Outlook and Future Implications
The latest figures from Cass Information Systems underscore a complex and evolving environment within the freight and logistics industry. The simultaneous rise in rates and fall in volumes presents a unique challenge for stakeholders. While severe weather conditions provided a short-term boost to rates, the underlying shifts in inventory management and capacity constraints suggest a more sustained trend towards higher costs for shippers. As the industry navigates these dynamics, strategic adjustments in supply chain planning and pricing will be crucial for maintaining competitiveness and profitability.